EXCERPT FROM ASIA TIMES ARTICLE:
Consequences for Washington
It is unclear just how seriously the Obama administration in Washington misjudged the true nature of the situation in Kyrgyzstan.
The long-term consequences of the provisional government finally bowing to pressure from Moscow and refusing to renew the US lease on the base at Manas in July this year are likely to be more than a little unfortunate for Washington.
Manas international airport near Bishkek has been an important supply transit base for the US since late 2001. Bakiyev had indeed stated his intention to close it in October 2008 after agreeing to the Russian loan. He only reversed the decision, to the irritation of Moscow, when the US agreed to more than triple its annual rent for the base, to about US$60 million annually.
Its loss would be a severe blow to US diplomatic prestige in the region and could have potentially serious military consequences for US forces in Afghanistan in the event of terrorist activity causing significant disruption to the major supply routes passing through an increasingly unstable Pakistan.
The US Intelligence community is also likely to suffer from the loss of its facilities embedded within the US base.
Putin was the first foreign leader to offer recognition of Kyrgyzstan's provisional government. This was in sharp contrast to the US State Department's pronouncement of its ill-judged decision to continue to cooperate with Bakiyev, at least until he formally resigned.
Correct diplomatically speaking, but a decision that failed to click with many supporters of the new regime who had only very recently experienced the brutality of Bakiyev's gunmen.
Putin made an immediate hit by providing recognition of the bravery of those who had fought and died on the streets of Bishkek.
Unsurprisingly, the provisional government of Otunbayeva proved equally quick to express its gratitude to the Kremlin, thanking Russia for its "significant support" and confirming that it would be sending envoys to Moscow for talks. Otunbayeva said in an interview with Ekho Moskvy on April 8:We are grateful to the Russian Federation and to the Russian prime minister, because in those days there was the support, significant support from Russia that exposed the family of a criminal regime. This regime resisted until the last bullet yesterday, and unfortunately we have dead, and wounded.Another opposition leader, Omurbek Tekebayev, later told Reuters that Russia had "played its role in ousting Bakiyev" and that there was a "high probability that the duration of the US air base's presence in Kyrgyzstan will be shortened".
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