Two Civil Wars with Brakes On--Roni Ben Efrat

Tweet "The Israeli-Palestinian conflict was once the mother of all problems in the Middle East. Today it is one among many. For this demotion we may largely thank US President George W. Bush and his war in Iraq. Apart from splitting that unhappy country into Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish sectors, Bush's war has changed the geopolitics of the region. The Iraq of Saddam Hussein used to be the area's major power, but today it is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Iran. Saddam was a secular dictator who represented Arab nationalism; Ahmadinejad represents Shiite fundamentalismùand his country, of course, isn't Arab.

"In Bush's new Middle East, then, two axes have emerged. There is the American axis, which includes Fouad Siniora in Lebanon and Abu Mazen in Palestine, along with older members: Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt. Over against them, in the Iranian axis, stand Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria. Does the Iranian axis aim to become America's global opponent, like the Soviet Union in the Cold War? No. Apart from the central role of Islamic law in Iran, this axis presents no counter-agenda, political, social or ideological. Iran and its allies would prefer to have American and European recognition, but they aren't willing to change their spots: they aren't willing, that is, to become American lackeys, eradicating their own identities. They are encouraged in this self-assertion by the weakening of the US as a global power, thanks again to its entanglement in Iraq.

"If we want a good example of lackeyism, we may look to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. In a recent cabinet meeting, he justified his rejection of Syrian peace overtures, saying that a positive response was forbidden at a time when President Bush, "the most important strategic ally of Israel, opposes any negotiations with Syria."

"The two axes confront each other at three flashpoints: (1) Iran, which opposes the world on the nuclear issue while backing Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Shiites of Iraq.(2) Israel/Palestine, which includes not just the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but now also that between Fatah and Hamas.(3) Lebanon, where the opponents of Syria's interfering hand are at odds with those who eat from it, namely Hezbollah.

The last two flashpoints may be characterized as civil wars with the brakes on. Each wavers before the point of no return. Up front we see political assassination and shooting in the streets, while behind the scenes the reconcilers toil to patch things up.

From Electronic Intifada